This pattern mirors the exponentialgrowth of psychotropic drugs in children |
INCARCERATION RATES PER 100,000 OF POPULATION
|
Prison as a Strata of Social Control
by James P.
Lynch and William J. Sabol
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/195172.pdf
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/195172.pdf
James P. Lynch
is a Professor with American University in Washington, D.C.
William J. Sabol
is Senior Research Associate at the Center on Urban Poverty and
Social Change,
Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
Over the past
20 years, the United States has experienced a massive
increase in
imprisonment. The number of people incarcerated and the clustering of
that incarceration in the inner-city black population raise the prospect
that incarceration may be undermining less coercive institutions of
social control such as families or communities. The long-term
result of this incarceration policy, then, would be increases, rather than the
expected decreases, in crime. There is some empirical evidence to
support this position. Increases in incarceration have been clustered in
groups and places and have been of the magnitude that could affect
less coercive institutions in those areas. Large proportions of the
imprisoned population are involved in families and communities
at the time of
their imprisonment. Incarceration has been
shown to reduce
family formation for blacks but not for whites.
Research to date,
however, has not demonstrated that increasing
incarceration
has led to more crime in the long run or that the apparent effects of
incarceration on other institutions are not due to other factors. If
research ultimately establishes that these allegations are true, then
future increases in incarceration must be considered in light of their likely
long-term effects on these institutions and not just their immediate
effect on crime rates.
Over the past 20 years, the United States has experienced a massive
increase in
imprisonment (Gilliard and Beck 1996; Lynch and Sabol 1997; Blumstein
and Beck 1999). It is not clear what caused this increase, e.g., increases
in crime or changes in policy, and it is even less clear what the effects of this
policy have been or will be. Traditionally, evaluations of incarceration assess its
effects in terms of the recidivism of individual offenders or the reductions
in aggregate crime rates (Nagin 1998; Blumstein, Cohen, and
Nagin 1978;
Levitt 1996). More recently, the number of people incarcerated and the
clustering of that incarceration in inner-city black populations raise the prospect
that incarceration may be undermining less coercive institutions of social
control, such as families and communities (Lynch and Sabol 1992;
Rose and Clear
1998a, 1998b; Clear 1996; Moore 1996; Nightingale and Watts 1996). To
the extent that these less coercive institutions of social control are the first
line of defense against crime, then disrupting them may mean that the
long-term consequences of the massive increases in incarceration of
the past 15
years will be increased crime (Rose and Clear 1998a).
Allegations
that incarceration undermines less coercive institutions of social control are
largely speculative. The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate the existing
evidence that recent increases in incarceration have had such effects. We
will also suggest research that should be done to test this contention
further.
The first of the following sections reviews evidence that the level of incarceration has increased and that this increase has been clustered in social and geographic space. Establishing these facts is crucial for the argument that incarceration can plausibly affect less coercive institutions of social control. The second section
reviews and
evaluates the evidence that increases in incarceration have had detrimental (or
beneficial) effects on less coercive institutions of social control.
The third and final section outlines the research required to better assess the impact of incarceration on less coercive institutions of social control.
Trends in the Level and
Distribution of Incarceration
The use of incarceration has increased massively over the past 15 years, both in terms of the number of persons in prison on a given day and in terms of the cumulative number of persons experiencing incarceration over that period. This intrusion of incarceration into society has not been randomly distributed in social and geographic space. It has been greatest for young black males, first in
central cities
and more recently in smaller urban areas (Lynch and Sabol 1997; has approached
10 percent on a given day and 30 percent in their lifetimes (Lynch and
Sabol 1992; Bonczar and Beck 1997). Over time, incarceration has touched more
persons who have relatively strong ties to society (Lynch and
Sabol 1997;
Harer 1993). These trends suggest that changes in the use of incarceration have made
imprisonment so prevalent in some groups as to disrupt less coercive
institutions of social control.
Evidence from stock rates
The population
in correctional institutions has increased substantially since 1980 (see
exhibit 1). The number of persons in State and Federal prisons increased from
315,074 in 1980 to 1,138,984 in 1996. The incarceration rate per 100,000
increased from 139 to 423—a 204-percent increase. During the same period,
the jail population increased from 182,288 to 557,974. The total
incarcerated
population increased from 497,362 to 1,696,958.
This increase
in the use of incarceration has not been uniform across groups.
For blacks, the risk of being incarcerated increased from 554 per 100,000 to
Exhibit 1. Rate of incarceration in State and Federal prisons,
by
gender, race, and Hispanic origin, 1980 and 1996
Number
of Number of prisoners sentenced
prisoners a year in %
1980 1996 change 1980 1996 change
Male 303,643
1,069,257 252 275 810 195
Female 12,331
69,727 465 11 51 364
Whitec 132,600 378,000
185 73 193 164
Black 145,300
524,800 261 554 1,574 184
Hispanic 30,700
200,800 554 206 690 235
Total 315,974
1,138,984 260 139 423 204
Based on prisoners with a sentence of more than 1 year. The numbers for race and Hispanic origin were estimated based on the State inmate surveys in 1979 and 1997 and the Federal inmate survey in 1997. Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.
Based on prisoners with a sentence of more than 1 year. The numbers for race and Hispanic origin were estimated based on the State inmate surveys in 1979 and 1997 and the Federal inmate survey in 1997. Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.
b Based on census
estimates of the U.S. resident population on July 1 of each year and adjusted for the census
undercount.
Excludes Hispanics.
Source:
Blumstein and Beck 1999, table 1.
PRISON USE AND SOCIAL CONTROL
CRIMINAL JUSTICE 2000
1,574 per 100,000. For whites, it increased from 73 per 100,000 to 193 per 100,000 (Blumstein and Beck 1999). Although blacks are about seven times more likely than whites to be incarcerated, this disproportionality has remained relatively constant over time. In absolute terms, however, the increase in the rate of people incarcerated has been much greater for blacks than whites. For
purposes of
assessing the disruption of less coercive institutions of social control resulting from
incarceration, absolute increases are much more important than increases
relative to some base number of incarcerated persons at an earlier period.
While the racial disproportionality in the prison population has remained reasonably constant overall, it has increased for drug offenders. The incarceration rate for black drug offenders has increased much more than the rate for whites.
This is
consequential for our argument because there is some evidence that drug offenders
tend to be more integrated into the community than violent offenders
(Cohen and Canela-Cacho 1994; MacCoun and Reuter 1992).
Removing
integrated persons is more disruptive of less coercive institutions of social
control than removing less integrated persons.
The
incarceration rate for underclass males increased 139 percent between 1979 and 1986,
from 560 to 1,340 per 100,000 (see exhibit 2).2 During the same period,
the non-underclass incarceration rate increased by 33 percent, from 330 to 440
per 100,000. When these rates were distinguished by race and class, the
risk of incarceration increased the most for the black underclass, followed by the
white underclass, the black non-underclass, and the white non-underclass
(see exhibit 3).
There was a
marked change in this pattern of incarceration use from 1986 to 1991. The
incarceration of the underclass slowed while the imprisonment of the
non-underclass increased (Lynch and Sabol 1994). When these changes in
incarceration rates are disaggregated by offense, we see that the greatest increase in
incarceration rates is for the black non-underclass sentenced for
drug offenses,
followed closely by the black non-underclass imprisoned for violent
offenses (see exhibit 4).
Over time, the State prison population has included a larger proportion of inmates who did not have a violent incarceration offense and who had not been incarcerated previously (Lynch and Sabol 1997). In 1979, 5.7 percent
Exhibit
2. Adult male incarceration rates per 100,000 for underclass
and non-underclass, 1979 and 1986
Year
Underclass
status 1979 1986 % change
Underclass 560
1,340 139
Non-underclass
330 440 33
Exhibit 3. Adult male incarceration rates per 100,000 by race
and
class, 1979 and 1986
Race*
Class
1979 1986 Change
White Underclass 281 706 425
Non-underclass
194 256 62
Black Underclass
1,634 3,242 1,608
Non-underclass
1,824 2,116 292
* Other race categories were not included because of small numbers and the unreliability of the Hispanic classification over time and place of inmates were admitted for a drug offense and had no prior convictions for violence. By 1986, that proportion had changed little, to 7.0 percent. In 1991, however, 17.8 percent of inmates were in for drug offenses and had no prior incarcerations for violence. This is consistent with the previous finding that,
after 1986,
incarceration increased for the black non-underclass, if we can assume that
this group had less prior criminal involvement than the underclass.
Evidence from admissions rates
Consistent with
national data on the incarcerated population, the increases in admissions to
prison differ considerably across race and offense, but they also differ across
size of place and over time.3 Admissions rates for blacks are higher than those for
whites for both drugs and violence and across all types of places. These
differences change in magnitude, however, across crimes, places,
and times. In
1984, the ratio of black-to-white incarceration rates for violence in larger urban
areas (Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas [PMSAs]) was 11.4, and in
smaller urban areas (Metropolitan Statistical Areas [MSAs]), the
ratio of
black-to-white admissions was somewhat less at 9.4. By 1987, the differences in
admissions rates across races lessened somewhat (8.9 in PMSAs and 7.1 in
MSAs). These ratios remained roughly similar through the period 1987 to 1993.
During the same
period, drug admissions rates changed dramatically, as did the differences in
these rates across race groups and place. From 1984 to 1987, the black
admissions rates more than doubled in MSAs (77.8 per 100,000) and increased more
than four times in the largest urban areas (114.3 per 100,000).
This is in a
period when violence admissions rates were relatively stable, and the drug
admissions rates for whites increased by 42 percent in PMSAs and 12.6 percent in
MSAs. By 1990, black admissions rates for drugs had doubled again. In 1993,
the black drug admissions rate remained stable in the largest places (203.3
per 100,000) but increased substantially in the MSAs, to 190
per 100,000—approximately
the rate observed in the PMSAs.
Exhibit
4. Adult male incarceration rates per 100,000 by race, class, and
offense: 1979, 1986, and 1991
Offence
Race*
Class
1979 1986 1991
Violent White
Underclass 139 335 334
Non-underclass
106 132 191
Black Underclass
899 1,934 1,258
Non-underclass
1,015 1,291 1,738
Property White Underclass 109 268 245
Non-underclass
67 81 117
Black Underclass
554 953 609
Non-underclass
592 554 816
Drugs White
Underclass 18 57 180
Non-underclass
14 25 71
Black Underclass
123 206 877
Non-underclass
147 161 919
Other White
Underclass 16 46 71
Non-underclass 7
18 415
Black Underclass
59 149 169
Non-underclass
70 109 222
* Other race categories were not included because of small numbers and the unreliability of the
Hispanic
classification over time and place.
Taking
account of accumulation
In assessing
the effects that prison has on society, we
often forget
that some effects may not come from the
number entering
prison in a given year or the number
incarcerated on
a given day, but from the volume of
persons passing
through or exposed to prison. To the
extent that
prison leaves a “taint,” this is an appropriate
way to assess
its possible effects (Freeman 1992).
Bonczar and
Beck (1997) estimate that nearly 30 percent
of the black
male population 20 years of age and
older will be
incarcerated at least once in their lifetime.
If serving a
sentence in jail (as opposed to State
or Federal
prison) were included in this calculation,
the proportion
ever incarcerated would be greater.
Whatever the
true lifetime prevalence of incarceration,
it is clear
that imprisonment is so commonplace
among black men
that any taint resulting from imprisonment
could
substantially affect these men and the
groups to which
they belong.
These changes in the level and distribution of incarceration are consistent with the contention that incarceration has changed in ways that can undermine less coercive institutions of social control. The level of incarceration has increased massively, which increases the likelihood of disrupting groups rather than individuals.
These increases are highly clustered in social and geographic space,
which further
increases the likelihood of group disruption. The proportion of the population
removed has been much greater for blacks than for whites and much greater in
central cities than other places.4 Moreover, the increases in incarceration
have, over time, moved into population segments that were formerly immune. Greater
numbers of the non-underclass and non-central city populations have been
incarcerated, as well as persons with little criminal history who were
incarcerated for nonviolent (largely drug) offenses. Removing more such people,
who were integrated into social groups prior to imprisonment, increases the
likelihood that those groups will be disrupted.
Evidence of the Breakdown in Noncoercive
Institutions of Social
Control
Although the
foregoing description of changes in the level and distribution of incarceration
suggests that incarceration increases have disrupted less coercive methods of control.
The level of incarceration has increased massively, which
increases the likelihood of disrupting groups rather than
individuals. These increases are highly clustered in social
and geographic space, which further increases the likelihood
of group disruption.
The nature of the evidence required will depend on the
specific processes that link incarceration with the demise (or robustness) of
less coercive institutions of social control. Consequently, we
must review the
conceptual models that link incarceration with less coercive institutions of
social control, then proceed to the relevant empirical evidence.
Models of the effect of incarceration on
less
coercive institutions of social control
Although this review is focused on the potentially negative effects of incarceration on less coercive institutions of social control, it is essential that we also consider the possible positive effects of imprisonment on these institutions.
Therefore, we review models explaining both the possible negative and positive effects of incarceration policies.
Models of positive effects
Traditionally,
the principal benefit of incarceration has been crime reduction through
incapacitation or deterrence. Until recently, this has been reason enough to
warrant imprisonment. Beneficial effects of imprisonment were believed to
occur because of increases in the certainty and severity of punishment or because the
offender was simply removed from society. Nagin (1998) acknowledges
the evidence in support of deterrence but cautions against overgeneralizing its
applicability. He asserts that the deterrent effect of incarceration may depend on
the social context in which it is applied and, specifically, whether
imprisonment stigmatizes the offender in his family and community.
Absent this stigmatization, deterrence will not occur (Zimring and Hawkins 1973). Nagin’s argument is not that imprisonment will bolster less coercive institutions of social control, but that without these less coercive institutions of social control, imprisonment may not deter crime. The novelty of Nagin’s argument is the linkage of imprisonment to less coercive institutions of social control, rather than viewing it alone as an instrument of crime reduction.
There is virtually no theory or empirical work that associates imprisonment directly with building or supporting less coercive institutions of social control.
Most of the
beneficial effects of imprisonment on less coercive institutions of social control
are expected to occur through crime reduction. So, removing an abusing
spouse from the home will improve the functioning of a family.
members may be
sufficient to stop the behavior and thereby help the family (Sherman 1995).
The improved functioning of the family should provide for
socialization and supervision of children and thereby lower crime rates.
Similarly,
actually removing criminals from communities or plausibly threatening incarceration
can reduce crime rates in neighborhoods or the fear of crime.
This, in turn,
would permit the interaction among neighbors that provides the informal
controls to promote community organization and reduce neighborhood crime. These
types of causal processes underlie programs like Weed and Seed (Dunworth and
Mills 1999) and are summarized in exhibit 5. Although these
models have
been discussed, they have never been tested empirically.
Exhibit
5. Model of the positive effects of incarceration on
less
coercive institutions of social control
Voluntary associations
Community solidarity
Informal social control
Crime
Neighbouring
Coercion
Stability
Crime
Models of negative effects
There are
various routes and processes by which incarceration can adversely affect less
coercive institutions of social control. Lynch and Sabol (1992; 1997; 1998b)
speculated that incarceration would reduce the marriageability of men and thereby
reduce marriage formation. This, in turn, would increase the number of
female-headed households in areas with high incarceration rates and,
ultimately, increase crime
rates due to an absence of supervision for young males in these areas
(Sampson 1987). They speculated that the marriageability of men would be
reduced by (1) their removal through incarceration, and (2) the taint of a prison
record in the job market. This simple model is summarized in exhibit 6.
effects of
incarceration. This model describes how community disorganization leads to crime.
The principal exogenous variables in the model are heterogeneity, mobility, and
socioeconomic status. These variables can facilitate or inhibit interaction in
communities that allow residents of that community to set and achieve
collective goals. They can enhance private control within intimate
groups as well
as “parochial” control outside of intimate groups but in the area.
Parochial
control would include control in the context of neighboring and in voluntary
associations. Heterogeneity, mobility, and socioeconomic status can also affect the
amount of public control in a community by influencing that community’s
ability to negotiate services with municipal bureaucracies,
including the
criminal justice system. In Bursik and Grasmick’s
model, the levels of private, parochial, and public
control in a community determine the crime rate.
Communities that are stable and homogeneous will have high
levels of private and parochial
control as well
as optimum levels of public control, resulting in
relatively low levels of crime.
Rose and Clear
(1998a) elaborate on this basic model by
hypothesizing that incarceration will introduce mobility and
heterogeneity into communities, and thereby abet
the process of disorganization (see exhibit 7).
They focus specifically on certain institutional arrangements
that will be weakened by incarceration
and how this
weakness, in turn, will reduce private,
parochial, and public control in these communities.
Incarceration will weaken families by removing men from families and by reducing the supply of marriageable men. This will make families
Exhibit
6. Model of negative effects of incarceration
on
institutions of social control
Supply of men
Incarceration
Marriageability of men
Family formation
Parochial controls
Privatecontrol
Crime
Incarceration will weaken families by removing men from
families and by reducing the supply of marriageable men.
This will make families less effective as socializing agents
This will make families less effective as socializing agents
and less able to supervise teenage children.
Source: Lynch and Sabol 1998a.
less effective
as socializing agents and less able to supervise teenage children.
Removal through
incarceration will also affect economic institutions in communities by removing
people who bring money to families and the community.
Political
institutions will be affected by removing people from networks that mobilize the
community in response to external threats. There will be gaps in the network
so that mobilization of the community will be incomplete.
Moreover,
removing persons from the area will mean that those who take up their tasks
have less time for the mobilization process. Rose and Clear (1998a) also
hypothesize that massive use of incarceration in communities will lessen the stigma (and
hence the effectiveness) of this type of public control for
community
residents.
Evidence
for the positive effects of incarceration
on
less coercive institutions of social control
There is almost
no direct empirical evidence that incarceration strengthens less coercive
institutions of social control where incarceration, crime reduction, and changes in
such institutions are included in the same study. The negative
Exercise of public control
Level of incarceration
Exercise of private control
Human/ social capital
Residential stability
Socioeconomic composition
Racial/ethnic heterogeneity
Effective socialization
Exercise of parochial control
Crime rate
Exhibit 7. Nonrecursive model of crime control, social
disorder,
and crime
Source: Rose and
Clear 1998.
association
between imprisonment (and other forms of coercion) and crime has been the
subject of extensive study (Blumstein, Cohen, and Nagin 1978; Ehrlich 1973;
Levitt 1996; Nagin 1998). That crime reduction has beneficial effects on less
coercive institutions of social control has been largely assumed.
Incarceration
is alleged to reduce crime either through the process of incapacitation or deterrence.
Incapacitation assumes that incarceration reduces crime by removing an
individual from society so that the crime he would have committed will be
prevented or moved to an institutional setting. Imprisonment can
also reduce
crime if the threat of punishment is sufficient to prevent would-be criminals from
engaging in crime. There is considerable empirical evidence for and against
both the incapacitation and deterrent effects of incarceration. Much of this
evidence is seriously flawed so that unequivocal inclusions are difficult to draw. The
preponderance of the evidence, however, is that incarceration both
incapacitates
criminals and deters crimes, but it is not clear when and under which conditions incarceration will lead to reduced crime.
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